CHAPTER ONE 1.1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND An economy whether developing or developed is out to achieve certain objectives which include growth in the gross domestic product, reduction in the relit of inflation and unemployment, favorable balance of payment, and long term Socio-economic development. The growth of output of any economy depends on Capital accumulation; and capital accumulation requires investment and an equivalent amount of saving to match it. Two of the most important issues in development economics, and tor developing countries, are how to stimulate investment, and how to bring about an increase in the level of saving 10 fund increased investment. To this end. many less developed countries’ government have made it a point of duties to ensure proper mobilization of domestic funds by manipulating both fiscal and monetary policy as a tool to achieve their set objectives For many countries, financial sector and balance of payment liberalizations have broadened access to foreign capital to finance domestic investment. However, many developing economies, in part because of their high level of external indebtedness cannot benefit from foreign sources of capital. For men. domestic savings remains the main source of funds to finance development and to promote economic growth. However, due to low income per head in less developed countries, a perception that poor people are too poor to save has been prevailing for a long time and most financial institutions still do not cater to this type of clients. It is clear that poor
people’s savings constitutes a potentially substantial source of savings and lapping into that source of funds is essential However in mobilization of saving, determinants such as income level, interest rates, economic growth level, inflation rate, fiscal balance, external debt, among other have come to play important roles. If developing economies are to promote savings for the financing of investment, its determinants must be clearly identified, Until recently, financial development was assumed to enhance the saving rate. It consists of elimination of credit ceilings, interest rate liberalization, easing of entry for foreign financial institutions, enhanced prudential guidelines and supervision, and the development of capital markets. Loayza and Shankar (2000) find that financial development has led the private sector to increase the durable goods component of their assets. the effect of financial development on saving rates can be separated into a direct short-run impact, which is usually negative, and an indirect long-run impact, which is generally positive (See Loayza et al, 2000). However, whether increased financial development itself significantly increases overall propensity to save depends on me extent of substitution between financial saving and other items in the household’s asset portfolio. Consequently, the expected signs of this relationship in the private saving function are ambiguous (Athukora) and Sen, 2004). This study attempts to determine the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on saving mobilization in Nigeria. It also attempts to find influence of other Macroeconomics variables on both domestic and mobilization as a means of attaining economic growth and development 1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Savings, a necessary engine of economic growth has been very low in Nigeria, Gross Domestic Savings as a percentage of GDI1 in less developed countries has been low; between 1980 and 2001, it averaged 6,4% in Ghana, 37.4% in Botswana, 2!.4% in Cameroon, 21.6% in Nigeria, 13.9% in Kenya and 7.3% in Malawi (WDTS 2003), He apparent low savings in Nigeria has been due to a combination of micro and macroeconomic and political factors such as high level of poverty, low income per head, high level of unemployment, inefficient financial institutions, and many more. In order to overcome the problem of low savings in Nigeria, various monetary and fiscal policies have been pursued over the years but these have no! yielded the required results The objectives of monetary policy since 1986 have remained the same as in the earlier period – the stimulation of output and employment, and the promotion of domestic and external stability. In line with the general philosophy of economic management under SAP, monetary’ policy was aimed at inducing the emergence of a market-oriented financial system for effective mobilization of financial savings and efficient resource allocation. The main instrument of the market-based framework is the open market operations. This is complemented by reserve requirements and discount window operations. The adoption of a market-based framework such as OMO in an economy that had
been under direct control for the required substantial improvement in the macroeconomic. legal term regulatory environment . Fiscal policy is therefore a government policy that attempts to influence the direction of the economy through changes in government spending (expenditure) or taxes or simply put. fiscal policy refers to the overall effect of the budge! outcome on economic activity. With the other main type of economic policy, like the monetary policy which attempts to stabilize the economy by controlling interest rates and the supply of money, budgetary actions that raise the growth of government expenditures, reduce the growth of revenues and either increase the deficit or reduce the surplus are the sort of fiscal policies that tend to stimulate short-term growth and capital formation through savings mobilization in the economy. Actions that reduce expenditures; increase government revenues and shrink the deficit or increase the surplus tend to dampen short-term economic growth. The three possible stances of fiscal policy are neutral, expansionary and Contractionary: A neutral stance of fiscal policy implies a balanced budget where G = T (Government spending – Tax revenue). An expansionary stance of fiscal policy involves a net increase in government spending (G > T) through EL rise in government spending or a fall in taxation revenue or a combination of the two. Contractionary fiscal policy (G < T) occurs when net government spending is reduced either through higher taxation revenue or reduced government spending or a combination of the two. The findings of this study will provide answer to these and many more questions that would be raised in the count of the study.
1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS This research question was asked and answered: 1. What are the fiscal and monetary policies that can be used to enhance savings mobilization for investment purpose? 2. What are the key variables explaining effective mobilization of savings? 3. What arc the problems encountered in the process of taxing mobilization? 4. What policy option have been formulated to correct these problems and to sustain savings mobilization process?
1.4 Research Hypothesis
To effectively achieve the above mentioned objectives we adopt a null hypothesis:
HO: The monetary policy instrument does not have significant impact on National Savings
HI: The monetary policy instruments have significant impact on National Savings
1.5 HYPOTHESIS TESTING HYP. 1 HQ: The monetary policies do not have significant effect on national savings HI: The monetary policies have significant effect on national savings HYP. 2 HQ: The fiscal policies do not have significant effect on national savings HI: The fiscal policies have significant effect on national savings
This aspect of the research work aims at giving detailed information about the method used in gathering relevant and useful data for the study. Basically, the methods used in this research work are analytical. The work is based on data collected from secondary sources such as Statistical Bulletin of Central Banks of Nigeria (CBN) and annual reports of Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC). The data collected are in form of statistical data and tables which are analyzed to arrive at a conclusion. 1.7 Method of Data Analysis of Statistical Method or Econometric Method Using E-view To be able to exhaust the subject matter of this study that is, the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on savings mobilization in Nigeria, the study will cover the period of 1981 to 2013. The finding(s) of this study will only be limited, consistent
and applicable to Nigerian economic system. 1.8 PLAN OF THE STUDY Domestic resources serve as a vital engine of growth and poverty reduction. However, the effective mobilization of domestic resources depends on an efficient and well developed financial market Capital formation is a prerequisite for development. However, in Third World countries the inadequacies of the financial systems often prevent the accumulation of financial resources. These systems need to fulfill their role as agents between (abundantly available) savings and investments to a greater extent. Economic development in Third World countries means growth and the participation of the poor in such growth. This requires large investments and thus capital. This is not something that has been discovered recently but something that was already recognized at the start of development co-operation about 40 years ago. However, nowadays many development aid organizations are bemoaning cash shortages. Moreover, capital aid within the scope of development cooperation has often led to the recipient country becoming over borrowed. Is it possible to promote capital formation in less developed countries through the use of its fiscal and monetary policies? When economists address this subject, they like to point out that a national economy can only invest to the same extent as it also saves – and saving mean forgoing consumption. Statistics show there are major differences from country to country when it comes to their ability to forego consumption. For example, between 1980 and 2000 the national savings rates were between 23% and
58% in Singapore, between 34% and 42% in The People’s Republic of China, between -5% and 24% in Ghana and between -4% and 14% in Senegal. The rationale behind this study emanated from the desire to examine how government policies particularly fiscal and monetary policies has affected mobilization of savings in the economy and to clarify issues that can manifest in the process. Besides many studies have been conducted on fiscal and monetary policies in the past but little have been done to relate these studies to savings mobilization in Nigeria. Because of the importance of capital formation on economic growth and development it is very essential to study the effect of these macroeconomic policies on saving mobilization. Thus, to design policy instruments through which savings mobilization can be enhanced and sustained through fiscal and monetary policies and to be able to channel it to appropriate capital investment, remains the important rationale behind this study.
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